AGF vs Benfica prediction — Europa League - Qualification · Thu 27 Aug · 19:00 UK

Europa League - Qualification · Thu 27 Aug · 19:00 UK
AGF 22Draw 24Benfica 54
The call
79%
Over 1.5 goals
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–3

How it finished

Benfica beat AGF 3–1. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4.

What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultBenfica 54%Benfica (54% called)
Total goals2.94
Both teams to score56%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 79%Landed
Second callAway Win 54%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Benfica to score84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals67%
AGF to score66%

First half — what we expected

AGFBefore half-timeBenfica
38%Chance to score57%
2.7Expected shots6.9
0.9Expected shots on target2.4
2.2Expected corners3.0
7%Chance of 6+ shots67%
1%Chance of 8+ shots39%
58%Chance of 1+ shots on target65%
6%Chance of 3+ shots on target44%
61%Chance of 2+ corners78%
19%Chance of 4+ corners36%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 74%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.7 / match
Opponent strength indexTop quartile
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won AGF vs Benfica?

Benfica beat AGF 3–1. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4.

What was the final score in AGF vs Benfica?

AGF 1–3 Benfica, played on 27 Aug 2026 in the Europe: Europa League - Qualification. Bawler's model had gone into it with AGF 22%, the draw 24% and Benfica 54%.

Did both teams score in AGF vs Benfica?

Yes — both AGF and Benfica scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for AGF vs Benfica right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Benfica 54%, it finished Benfica (54% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Away Win 54%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →AGF form →Benfica form →