Anderlecht beat KV Mechelen 1–0. Bawler's model had Anderlecht in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 1 was scored. KV Mechelen had 15 shots (4 on target) to Anderlecht's 14 (3), with 34% of the ball against 66%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.9, so KV Mechelen created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Anderlecht beat KV Mechelen 1–0. Bawler's model had Anderlecht in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 1 was scored. KV Mechelen had 15 shots (4 on target) to Anderlecht's 14 (3), with 34% of the ball against 66%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.9, so KV Mechelen created the better chances and still lost the game.
KV Mechelen 0–1 Anderlecht, played on 11 Sept 2026 in the Belgium: Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with KV Mechelen 33%, the draw 26% and Anderlecht 42%.
Full-time: Possession 34%–66%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.9, Shots 15–14, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 11–9, Big chances 3–1, Corners 10–5, Saves 2–4, Fouls 13–21, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 1–4.
No. It finished 0–1, so KV Mechelen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Anderlecht or draw 67%, it finished Anderlecht won (42% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Missed.