FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Anderlecht 3–0 Zulte-WaregemMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 47%, draw at 25%, Zulte-Waregem at 28%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Anderlecht.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Zulte-Waregem win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.27
Total 2.96
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Anderlecht's 0.38 expected-goals edge and 46% win probability underpin the high-confidence forecast for Over 1.5 Goals at 81%, suggesting both sides will combine for attacking output despite their mid-table standing."