FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 11 September 2026
KV Mechelen 0–1 AnderlechtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had KV Mechelen at 33%, draw at 26%, Anderlecht at 42%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Anderlecht.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mechelen win
33%
Draw
26%
Anderlecht win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.62
Total 3.02
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides combine for 3.02 expected goals despite Mechelen's narrow home advantage in win probability (33% vs Anderlecht's 42%)."