FT · Belgium: Pro League · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Anderlecht 1–0 KV KortrijkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 03 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 59%, draw at 22%, KV Kortrijk at 19%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Anderlecht.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
59%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Kortrijk win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 1.07
Total 3.11
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Anderlecht's 0.97 xG advantage underpins an Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 82%, with the hosts' superior shot quality expected to crack a Kortrijk defence facing a significant efficiency gap."