FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Anderlecht 0–0 Racing GenkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 34%, draw at 25%, Racing Genk at 41%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Racing Genk to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
34%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Genk win
41%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.63
Total 3.08
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% confidence as Anderlecht (1.45 xG) and Genk (1.64 xG) combine for 3.09 expected goals in an evenly matched midtable fixture."