FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Royal Charleroi SC 2–0 KV MechelenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Royal Charleroi SC at 57%, draw at 24%, KV Mechelen at 19%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Royal Charleroi SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
57%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Mechelen win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.86 – 0.99
Total 2.85
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost