FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
RAAL La Louvière 2–2 KV MechelenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was RAAL La Louvière or draw at 68%. Bawler had RAAL La Louvière at 41%, the draw at 28% and KV Mechelen at 32%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
RAAL La Louvière win
41%
Draw
28%
Result
KV Mechelen win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because both sides generate similarly efficient attacking output (RAAL 1.41 xG, Mechelen 1.22 xG), suggesting a low-scoring but open contest."