FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Lommel SK 0–0 KV MechelenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lommel SK at 47%, draw at 27%, KV Mechelen at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Lommel SK to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SK win
47%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Mechelen win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.10
Total 2.64
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lommel's marginal 1.41 xG edge and 40% win probability over Mechelen's 1.24 creates enough attacking threat for Over 1.5 Goals, which the model forecasts at 74%."