FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Anderlecht 1–2 LyonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 22%, draw at 23%, Lyon at 54%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Lyon.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
22%
Draw
23%
Lyon win
54%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.18 – 1.94
Total 3.12
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lyon's 0.75 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make X2 the high-confidence forecast at 78%, with Lacazette's striker role central to their attacking efficiency."