FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 11 October 2026
KV Mechelen 4–3 Sint-TruidenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Sint-Truidense or draw at 67%. Bawler had KV Mechelen at 33%, the draw at 26% and Sint-Truidense at 41%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
KV Mechelen win
33%
Result
Draw
26%
Sint-Truidense win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+4.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 4.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.