Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor prediction — Süper Lig · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK

Süper Lig · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK
Kocaelispor 32Draw 30Samsunspor 38
The call
38%
Samsunspor to win
2.4
Goals expected
14d 00hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Kocaelispor or draw62%
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
BTTS48%
Kocaelispor win to nil19%
Samsunspor or draw68%
Under 3.5 goals79%
Correct score 1–113%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D L D L L L
Expected goals gap (xG)-0.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 5KOC 1 · D 1 · SAM 2
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Jan 2026Samsunspor 0–0 Kocaelispor
Aug 2025Kocaelispor 0–1 Samsunspor
Jan 2022Samsunspor 3–0 Kocaelispor
Aug 2021Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor
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Common questions

Who will win Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

Bawler's model rates this match: Samsunspor are favoured (38% win probability vs 32% for Kocaelispor, 30% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Kocaelispor 1-1 Samsunspor (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.35.

How does Bawler predict Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Kocaelispor 32%, the draw 30% and Samsunspor 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

BTTS: No (52% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.11 and away expected goals 1.24.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.35. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).

Around this fixture

Süper Lig table →
All fixtures & results →Kocaelispor form →Samsunspor form →