Bawler's model rates this match: Samsunspor are favoured (38% win probability vs 32% for Kocaelispor, 30% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Kocaelispor 1-1 Samsunspor (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.35.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Kocaelispor 32%, the draw 30% and Samsunspor 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: No (52% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.11 and away expected goals 1.24.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.35. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).