Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor prediction — Süper Lig · Sun 6 Sept · 18:00 UK

Süper Lig · Sun 6 Sept · 18:00 UK
Kocaelispor 32Draw 30Samsunspor 38
Our call before kickoff
68%
Samsunspor or draw
Missed
2.3
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
65%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
48%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
42%

How it finished

Kocaelispor beat Samsunspor 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Samsunspor at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Kocaelispor 32%. It forecast 2.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Kocaelispor had 9 shots (4 on target) to Samsunspor's 19 (4), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.6, so Samsunspor created the better chances and still lost the game.

KocaelisporFull-time statsSamsunspor
44%Possession56%
1.2Expected goals (xG)1.6
9Shots19
4Shots on target4
4Shots inside box13
3Big chances3
4Corners4
4Saves3
13Fouls14
0Offsides0
1Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callSamsunspor or draw 68%Kocaelispor won (32% called)
Total goals2.31
Both teams to score48%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 68%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

KocaelisporSamsunspor
1.1
Goals+0.1
1.2
12.6
Shots+3.9
8.6
3.7
On target+1.1
2.5
4.6
Corners+0.9
3.6
KocaelisporSamsunspor
0.4
Goals
0.4
6.2
Shots+2.4
3.8
1.7
On target+0.6
1.2
2.1
Corners+0.4
1.7
KocaelisporSamsunspor
0.7
Goals+0.1
0.8
6.4
Shots+1.6
4.8
1.9
On target+0.6
1.3
2.4
Corners+0.5
1.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Under 3.5 goals79%
Samsunspor to score71%
Over 1.5 goals68%
Kocaelispor to score67%

First half — what we expected

Kocaelispor
41%
to score before half-time
Samsunspor
41%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%

KocaelisporSamsunspor
6.21st-half shots3.8
1.71st-half shots on target1.2
2.11st-half corners1.7

First-half chances

67%Chance of 5+ shots34%
41%Chance of 7+ shots14%
78%Chance of 1+ shots on target64%
26%Chance of 3+ shots on target13%
84%Chance of 1+ corners76%
35%Chance of 3+ corners25%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Kocaelispor6.26.4
Shots · Samsunspor3.84.8
Shots on target · Kocaelispor1.71.9
Shots on target · Samsunspor1.21.3
Corners · Kocaelispor2.12.4
Corners · Samsunspor1.71.9
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 4Kocaelispor 1 · Draws 1 · Samsunspor 2
Samsunspor in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Jan 2026Samsunspor 0–0 Kocaelispor
Aug 2025Kocaelispor 0–1 Samsunspor
Jan 2022Samsunspor 3–0 Kocaelispor
Aug 2021Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

Kocaelispor beat Samsunspor 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Samsunspor at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Kocaelispor 32%. It forecast 2.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Kocaelispor had 9 shots (4 on target) to Samsunspor's 19 (4), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.6, so Samsunspor created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Turkey: Süper Lig. Bawler's model had gone into it with Kocaelispor 32%, the draw 30% and Samsunspor 38%.

What were the stats in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

Full-time: Possession 44%–56%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.6, Shots 9–19, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 4–13, Big chances 3–3, Corners 4–4, Saves 4–3, Fouls 13–14, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?

No. It finished 1–0, so Samsunspor failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Samsunspor or draw 68%, it finished Kocaelispor won (32% called); Total goals — we said 2.3, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 68%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Süper Lig table →
All fixtures & results →Kocaelispor form →Samsunspor form →