FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Besiktas 2–1 KocaelisporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas to win at 63%. Bawler had Besiktas at 63%, the draw at 23% and Kocaelispor at 14%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
63%
Result
Draw
23%
Kocaelispor win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.7
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Besiktas to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.