FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 2–0 KocaelisporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Istanbul Basaksehir or draw at 82%. Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 52%, the draw at 30% and Kocaelispor at 18%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Istanbul Basaksehir win
52%
Result
Draw
30%
Kocaelispor win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 0.9
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Istanbul Basaksehir or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Outside shot
Kocaelispor or draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Istanbul Basaksehir's 0.76 expected-goals advantage underpins the Istanbul Basaksehir or draw forecast at 76%, reflecting their superior shot quality and the 52% win probability that makes a home result or draw the likeliest outcomes."