FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 2–0 KocaelisporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 52%, draw at 30%, Kocaelispor at 18%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Istanbul Basaksehir.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Basaksehir win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Kocaelispor win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 0.92
Total 2.60
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Istanbul Basaksehir's 0.76 expected-goals advantage underpins the 1X forecast at 76%, reflecting their superior shot quality and the 52% win probability that makes a home result or draw the likeliest outcomes."