FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Galatasaray 1–0 KocaelisporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Galatasaray at 67%, draw at 21%, Kocaelispor at 12%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Galatasaray.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
67%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
Kocaelispor win
12%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.05 – 0.74
Total 2.79
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Galatasaray's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 67%, built on a decisive 1.31 expected-goals advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat against a limited Kocaelispor side."