FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Monday, 24 August 2026
Kocaelispor 2–0 Amed SFKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kocaelispor at 35%, draw at 29%, Amed SFK at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Amed SFK to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kocaelispor win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
SFK win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.22 – 1.22
Total 2.44
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost