FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Kocaelispor 1–0 SamsunsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kocaelispor at 32%, draw at 30%, Samsunspor at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Samsunspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kocaelispor win
32%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Samsunspor win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 1.23
Total 2.35
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost