FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Samsunspor 0–2 FenerbahceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Samsunspor at 30%, draw at 26%, Fenerbahce at 45%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Fenerbahce.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Samsunspor win
30%
Draw
26%
Fenerbahce win
45%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.29 – 1.64
Total 2.93
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost