FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Samsunspor 1–5 Çorum FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Samsunspor at 56%, draw at 24%, Çorum FK at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-5. The model's headline call was Samsunspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Samsunspor win
56%
Draw
24%
FK win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.86 – 1.04
Total 2.90
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+3.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Samsunspor's 0.82 expected-goals advantage underpins the 1X forecast, with the hosts generating 1.86 xG to Çorum's 1.04 in a matchup where home unbeaten is the model's 80% high-confidence call."