FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Konyaspor 1–2 KocaelisporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Konyaspor at 44%, draw at 29%, Kocaelispor at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Konyaspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Konyaspor win
44%
Draw
29%
Kocaelispor win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.01
Total 2.39
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Konyaspor's 0.36 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability make 1X the model's high-confidence call at 73%, favoring the home side's shot-creation advantage over Kocaelispor's lower attacking threat."