FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Konyaspor 1–2 KocaelisporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Konyaspor or draw at 73%. Bawler had Konyaspor at 44%, the draw at 29% and Kocaelispor at 27%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Konyaspor win
44%
Draw
29%
Kocaelispor win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Konyaspor or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Konyaspor's 0.36 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability make Konyaspor or draw the model's high-confidence call at 73%, favoring the home side's shot-creation advantage over Kocaelispor's lower attacking threat."