FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Caykur Rizespor 0–2 SamsunsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Caykur Rizespor or draw at 65%. Bawler had Caykur Rizespor at 38%, the draw at 27% and Samsunspor at 35%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Caykur Rizespor win
38%
Draw
27%
Samsunspor win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.