FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Caykur Rizespor 0–2 SamsunsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Caykur Rizespor at 38%, draw at 27%, Samsunspor at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Caykur Rizespor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rizespor win
38%
Draw
27%
Samsunspor win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.35
Total 2.79
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost