FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Kocaelispor 2–0 Gaziantep FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Kocaelispor at 46%, draw at 29%, Gaziantep FK at 26%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Kocaelispor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kocaelispor win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
FK win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 0.98
Total 2.38
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Kocaelispor's 0.33 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability make the 1X forecast (72% confidence) the model's pick, as the hosts project sharper finishing in a low-scoring contest."