FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Erzurum BB 1–0 SamsunsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Erzurum BB at 31%, draw at 27%, Samsunspor at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Samsunspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
BB win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Samsunspor win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.22 – 1.46
Total 2.68
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat, with combined expected goals of 2.91 suggesting a free-flowing contest neither can control."