Bawler's model rates this match: Inter Miami CF are favoured (65% win probability vs 16% for Atlanta United FC, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Inter Miami CF 2-1 Atlanta United FC (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.64.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Inter Miami CF 65%, the draw 19% and Atlanta United FC 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.48 and away expected goals 1.17.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.64. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).