D.C. United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026

0–0

Draw

Atlanta United FC

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 46%, draw at 26%, Atlanta United FC at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was D.C. United to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

United win

46%

Draw

26%

Actual ✓

FC win

28%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.63 – 1.23

Total 2.85

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-2.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 78%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 54%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"D.C. United's 0.37 xG advantage fuels the high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 78%, as Atlanta's creator Thiago Almada anchors an attack that will keep this entertaining at a total expected output of 2.85."

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