FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 24 August 2026
Atlanta United FC 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 24 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlanta United FC or draw at 81%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 59%, the draw at 22% and Sporting Kansas City at 19%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlanta United FC win
59%
Result
Draw
22%
Sporting Kansas City win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.