FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 24 August 2026
Atlanta United FC 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 59%, draw at 22%, Sporting Kansas City at 19%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Atlanta United FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
59%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
City win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.07 – 1.13
Total 3.20
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost