FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Minnesota United FC 1–2 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 52%, draw at 25%, Atlanta United FC at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Minnesota United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
52%
Draw
25%
FC win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.08
Total 2.83
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost