FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Portland Timbers 0–1 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 47%, draw at 24%, Atlanta United FC at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Portland Timbers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
47%
Draw
24%
FC win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.79 – 1.35
Total 3.15
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, backed by Portland's 0.56 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.07 that favors an open, multi-goal contest."