FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Philadelphia Union 2–2 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 44%, draw at 23%, Inter Miami CF at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Philadelphia Union to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
44%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
CF win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.89 – 1.59
Total 3.48
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won