FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Philadelphia Union 2–2 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union or draw at 68%. Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 44%, the draw at 23% and Inter Miami CF at 32%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Philadelphia Union win
44%
Draw
23%
Result
Inter Miami CF win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.6
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.