Bawler's model rates this match: Getafe are favoured (36% win probability vs 34% for Celta Vigo, 31% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Getafe 1-1 Celta Vigo (14.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.20.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Getafe 36%, the draw 31% and Celta Vigo 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: No (56% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.12 and away expected goals 1.08.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.20. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).