Getafe and Celta Vigo drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Getafe at 36% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 31%. It forecast 2.2 goals and the match produced 2. Getafe had 10 shots (2 on target) to Celta Vigo's 16 (3), with 30% of the ball against 70%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 57%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Getafe and Celta Vigo drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Getafe at 36% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 31%. It forecast 2.2 goals and the match produced 2. Getafe had 10 shots (2 on target) to Celta Vigo's 16 (3), with 30% of the ball against 70%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.0.
Getafe 1–1 Celta Vigo, played on 07 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Getafe 36%, the draw 31% and Celta Vigo 34%.
Full-time: Possession 30%–70%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–1.0, Shots 10–16, Shots on target 2–3, Shots inside box 6–8, Big chances 2–2, Corners 3–5, Saves 2–1, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 4–2, Red cards 1–0.
Yes — both Getafe and Celta Vigo scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 44% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Getafe or draw 66%, it finished Draw (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.2, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 44%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 64%, it finished Landed.