FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Getafe 1–1 DeportivoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Getafe at 46%, draw at 29%, Deportivo at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Getafe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
46%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Deportivo win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 0.91
Total 2.28
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 66%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 66% call, grounded in Getafe's 0.45 xG advantage and 46% win probability that suggests attacking intent will overcome Deportivo's defensive setup."