FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Getafe 1–0 Racing SantanderMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Getafe at 43%, draw at 30%, Racing Santander at 28%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Getafe.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Santander win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.00
Total 2.29
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost