FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Getafe 1–0 Racing SantanderMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 72%. Bawler had Getafe at 43%, the draw at 30% and Racing Santander at 28%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
43%
Result
Draw
30%
Racing Santander win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.0
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.