FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Partizan Belgrade 2–1 GetafeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Partizan Belgrade at 28%, draw at 28%, Getafe at 44%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Getafe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Belgrade win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Getafe win
44%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.10 – 1.45
Total 2.54
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Getafe's 0.35 xG advantage and 44% win probability make X2 the model's high-confidence forecast at 72%."