FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Partizan Belgrade 2–1 GetafeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 72%. Bawler had Partizan Belgrade at 28%, the draw at 28% and Getafe at 44%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Partizan Belgrade win
28%
Result
Draw
28%
Getafe win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.4
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Getafe's 0.35 xG advantage and 44% win probability make Getafe or draw the model's high-confidence forecast at 72%."