Estoril vs Arouca prediction — Primeira Liga · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK

Primeira Liga · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK
Estoril 43Draw 26Arouca 32
The call
43%
Estoril to win
3.0
Goals expected
14d 00hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Estoril or draw68%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
BTTS59%
Estoril win to nil21%
Arouca or draw57%
Under 3.5 goals65%
Correct score 1–111%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D L D L L L
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5EST 2 · D 1 · ARO 2
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Apr 2026Arouca 3–2 Estoril
Nov 2025Estoril 4–3 Arouca
Mar 2025Arouca 1–1 Estoril
Oct 2024Estoril 4–1 Arouca
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Common questions

Who will win Estoril vs Arouca?

Bawler's model rates this match: Estoril are favoured (43% win probability vs 32% for Arouca, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Arouca?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Estoril 1-1 Arouca (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.97.

How does Bawler predict Estoril vs Arouca?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Estoril 43%, the draw 26% and Arouca 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?

BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.61 and away expected goals 1.36.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Estoril vs Arouca?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.97. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Estoril form →Arouca form →