Bawler's model rates this match: CF Montréal are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for Charlotte FC, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is CF Montréal 1-1 Charlotte FC (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.99.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives CF Montréal 39%, the draw 26% and Charlotte FC 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.53 and away expected goals 1.45.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.99. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).