FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
D.C. United 1–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 36%, draw at 26%, Charlotte FC at 38%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Charlotte FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
36%
Draw
26%
FC win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.50
Total 2.95
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both teams carry nearly identical attacking threat—D.C. United 1.46 xG, Charlotte 1.41—suggesting a high-volume scoring environment."