FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
FC Cincinnati 3–3 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 45%, draw at 24%, Charlotte FC at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was FC Cincinnati to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cincinnati win
45%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
FC win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.85 – 1.53
Total 3.38
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 85%, driven by Cincinnati's 1.86 xG and a 0.34 expected-goal advantage anchored by creator Evander's 26% of team chance-building."