FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Charlotte FC 0–0 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 46%, draw at 26%, Houston Dynamo FC at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Charlotte FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
46%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
FC win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.20
Total 2.79
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% probability, driven by Charlotte's 0.39 xG advantage and the total expected chances reaching 2.79 — enough attacking volume for multiple tallies."