FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
CF Montréal 0–2 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 37%, draw at 26%, Columbus Crew at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
37%
Draw
26%
Crew win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.44
Total 2.88
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% with both sides generating nearly identical expected-goal totals (Montréal 1.39, Columbus 1.46), creating a balanced attacking setup where Diego Rossi's wing threat amplifies the Crew's offensive load."