FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
CF Montréal 2–2 LA GalaxyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 44%, draw at 26%, LA Galaxy at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
44%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Galaxy win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.31
Total 2.91
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won