FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
CF Montréal 2–2 LA GalaxyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was CF Montréal or draw at 69%. Bawler had CF Montréal at 44%, the draw at 26% and LA Galaxy at 31%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
CF Montréal win
44%
Draw
26%
Result
LA Galaxy win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.