FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–0 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 51%, draw at 24%, CF Montréal at 25%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Colorado Rapids.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rapids win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Montréal win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.82 – 1.22
Total 3.04
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, driven by Colorado's 0.60 xG advantage and a combined 3.04 expected goals that strongly favors an open, multi-goal contest."