FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
CF Montréal 3–1 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 39%, draw at 24%, FC Cincinnati at 37%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward CF Montréal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Cincinnati win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.66
Total 3.38
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 85% because both sides generate nearly identical expected goals—Montréal 1.72, Cincinnati 1.66—in a fixture the model rates as evenly matched."