FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
CF Montréal 1–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 38%, draw at 26%, Charlotte FC at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
38%
Draw
26%
FC win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.47
Total 2.98
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 80%, grounded in a combined expected-goals total of 2.98 that signals both sides will generate genuine attacking chances despite Montreal's narrow 38% win probability."