FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Atlanta United FC or draw at 66%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 42%, the draw at 24% and FC Cincinnati at 34%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlanta United FC win
42%
Draw
24%
FC Cincinnati win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.6
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.