FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Inter Miami CF or draw at 68%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 32%, the draw at 23% and Inter Miami CF at 45%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlanta United FC win
32%
Draw
23%
Inter Miami CF win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.9
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.