FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Toronto FC 2–1 CF MontréalMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Toronto FC or draw at 69%. Bawler had Toronto FC at 42%, the draw at 27% and CF Montréal at 31%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toronto FC win
42%
Result
Draw
27%
CF Montréal win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.