What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Burnley vs Derby County?
Bawler's model rates this match: Burnley are favoured (50% win probability vs 24% for Derby County, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Derby County?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Burnley 1-1 Derby County (12.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.68.
How does Bawler predict Burnley vs Derby County?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Burnley 50%, the draw 26% and Derby County 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby County?
BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.63 and away expected goals 1.05.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Derby County?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.68. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).