FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Burnley 2–2 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 80%. Bawler had Burnley at 55%, the draw at 25% and Charlton Athletic at 20%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
55%
Draw
25%
Result
Charlton Athletic win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Burnley or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.