FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
West Ham United 3–0 Derby CountyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 65%, draw at 21%, Derby County at 14%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward West Ham United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
County win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.08 – 0.86
Total 2.94
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"West Ham's attacking advantage—generating 2.08 expected goals to Derby's 0.82—makes a home win the high-confidence call at 66% forecast probability."