FT · England: Championship · Friday, 16 October 2026
Burnley 1–2 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 16 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at 66%. Bawler had Burnley at 34%, the draw at 27% and Wolverhampton Wanderers at 39%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
34%
Draw
27%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.